All Politics is Local

Something all consultants should be keeping an eye on.  The lower the turnout, the more distortions you can get due to local issues.  A controversial local measure does not matter much in a Presidential year when turnout is already high.  But that exact same measure can have a huge impact in a Gubernatorial, particularly one without much on the ballot.  And with very little to motivate voters this year, those impacts could be magnified even more.

Further, while most local elections used to be in odd years, they have increasingly shifted to even year ballots, largely due to local jurisdictions trying to save money during the Great Recession. This just increases the opportunities for such local issues to drive the results for state and federal contests.

So whenever you see an article in Rough and Tumble on some local measure you normally might not care about, check to see if it overlaps with a still competitive legislative contest.  At the minimum you will have something that makes you sound smart when gossiping.